The most common and robust projections of future climate are model outputs averaged over large areas and broad time intervals. For example, the IPCC (2007) projects an increase in global average temperature of 1.5 to 4 degrees for the 21st century. In turn most assessments of climate change impacts and vulnerability have relied on these scenarios of trends and shifts in average climate, and assumptions of simple or no adaptations. Impacts and adaptations occur, however, at local and regional scales where the major climate risk is exposure to extreme conditions rather than shifts or trends in the means: ¿variability is more important than averages¿ (Katz and Brown, 1992: 289). The proposed research program addresses a major gap in the understanding and consequences of climate variability and extremes (CVE) at the regional scale of anticipatory adaptation to climate change. This gap in knowledge and practice is recognized by the research team based on their considerable experience with interdisciplinary research in the field of adaptation to climate change and from their collaborations with decision makers and stakeholders engaged in relevant programs, policies and practice. We propose to develop regional projections of shifts in CVE within the context of a comparative, interdisciplinary and community-based investigation of vulnerable rural populations in Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Columbia, with a focus on vulnerabilities to departures from average hydroclimatic conditions (excessive moisture and drought). We will examine both the adaptive practices of rural populations and the governance policies and practices that exist to minimize the impacts of CVE on communities and the natural capital (water and ecosystems) upon which they depend. The analysis of current vulnerabilities in the context of future climate conditions will provide important insights into future risks and opportunities, facilitating the adoption of wise local practices and adjustments to governance policies and practices. By working with rural (including indigenous) communities, and with individuals, government agencies, and industries engaged in agriculture, the proposed project considers populations and sectors that are vulnerable from two perspectives: 1) the social and economic margins of society (indigenous peoples and other rural poor), and 2) exposure and sensitivity to climate change, although not necessarily economically or socially disadvantaged (e.g. irrigated agriculture and food processing).